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2004.01.31

64ビットとx86 everywhere

最近になって64ビットPCが必要になる場面が増えてきた。そのほとんどはメモリ容量の問題だ。今の32ビットx86ではプロセスあたりのメモリ空間が4GBに制限される。このうち1~2GBをOSが使うので、アプリが使えるのは2~3GBだ。大きなシステムのDBサーバーとしてはこれは心もとない。
だがItaniumを採用する気にはならない。AMDのx86 everywhereに強く惹かれる。Itaniumは将来おそらく、Intelの失敗の一つとしてリストアップされるだろう。8ビットから16ビット、そして32ビットへ遷移する時も、RISCが激しく追撃してきた時も、Intelが勝つことができたのはx86に固執したからだ。Intelはそれを忘れ、64ビットではItanium、組み込みではXScaleと3つのアーキテクチャラインを出している。
AMDはIntelのこの失敗を冷静に見据え、64ビットから携帯・組み込みまでx86アーキテクチャにする、という「x86 everywhere」戦略を取った。Opteronの今の成功はこの戦略が正しいことを示している。
しかしIntelは今までの失敗の時にもあったように、社内的には複数の選択肢を平行で開発しているのだろう。そしてどこかの時点で64ビットx86を出してくると思っていた。それが遅ければ遅いほど、AMDにとっては逆転のチャンスだ。
しかしそれは私が思っていたより早そうだ。インテル、64ビット戦略を変更--新「CT」チップでOpteronに対抗 の記事では、Intel製の64ビットx86を2月半ばにも公開するらしい。チップのリリース時期はおそらくその発表を待たなければならないが、今年の後半には64ビットの開発環境が揃う。Windows がItanimumとOpteronで走り、.NET Framework の64ビット版もリリースされる。それに間に合うなら、このCTチップはOpteronの強敵となろう。
それに間に合わないとなると、最初の数年はItaniumが大幅に落ち込み、Opteronの独り舞台となるように思える。
上の記事では、Itanimum対CTとなっているが、その図はありえないと思う。Itanimumには将来はない。Opteron対CTになるだろう。そしてそれはIntelの初動ミスにより、32ビットのIntel対AMDとは逆の図になるかもしれない。

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